The Private Equity for Families Blog

Cheeseburger, Cheeseburger, Cheeseburger

One of the funniest and most memorable Saturday Night Live skits was John Belushi and The Olympia Restaurant. That New York diner provided customers with a full menu of food choices, but only  served “Cheeseburger; Pepsi no Coke; and no fries, chips.” Regular patrons like Gilda Radner just ordered the “usual”. Newer customers started with tuna salad plate, or grilled ham and cheese on wheat toast, but always ended up with Cheeseburger. There was an illusion of choices but, if you were hungry and wanted to eat, only Cheeseburgers were served.

US Capital Markets Are the Eighth Wonder of the Modern World

Throughout my investment life in America, we have had multiple markets and multiple market makers ranging from the OTC, NASDAQ, AMEX, NYSE for equities to a Bond Market handling Govies, Munis, Corporates, and Mortgages. Specialty traders handled commodities, options and derivatives. U.S. Capital markets are admired worldwide for their liquidity and predictability. While the Big Recession reinforced the flaw of counterparty risk in many of the derivative markets for Collateralized Loan Obligations and Mortgage Backed Securities, most capital markets have remained dependable because counterparties are well capitalized and have the skill to maneuver downturns.

Imagination Has Led to Amazing Product Innovations

Endless products have also been invented to package and repackage these primary asset classes. Miliken invented High Yield. Nate Most at Barclays first introduced the ETF, but John Bogle and Vanguard are credited with selling them to the masses. Henry B. R. Brown came up with a money market product called Reserve Fund that paid interest on the equivalent of bank deposits. In 1924, Massachusetts Investors Trust first introduced mutual funds to America.

By the beginning of the 21st Century there was a full menu for the investor—Cheeseburger with Cheddar, Onions, Pickle and Mayo with fries and a Diet Coke backed up by a piece of pie and a cup of coffee. Unlike the Olympia Restaurant, you could even order eggs at lunch time.  

Trading markets survived Black Monday in 1987, the Telecom bust in 2001 and the Big Recession in 2008, but each crisis revealed increasing liquidity and counterparty risks.

First Inning for Modern Monetary Theory

As the first inning of Modern Monetary Theory (“MMT”), is playing out in April 2020 with the Fed still at bat after taking 4.0 trillion swings, it occurred to me the only end game is Cheeseburger, Cheeseburger, Cheeseburger.

For a two day period in late March 2020, the Fed underwrote money market liquidity, unclogged “plumbing problems” in the bond market, stopped the bloodbath in high yield, and monetized untradeable “drek” in every asset class. It even had enough pine tar to reverse the mother of all stock market crashes. Jerome Powell is the only batter, the only market maker. The guy on deck is wasting his time and should head back to the dugout to catch the latest episode of “Stranger Things”. He won’t bat for a long time.

Where this goes is like solving a multivariable equation, where your confidence in the assumptions behind any single variable is low—sorta like Covid-19 testing. However, the one thing we cannot dispute is investment outcomes for every asset class are now being managed, directly or indirectly, by the Fed.

Some smart money is sitting on their wallets because we now have a single market maker and it is pure speculation to guess who will be saved and who will be sacrificed. Why speculate in any of those markets or products when you can invest in the one product that will be monetized as long as Jerome Powell is still swinging the bat: US government debt. Many naysayers say the US Dollar will lose reserve currency status, or the government will declare a debt jubilee on its own bankrupt promises, but that is the second inning.

We are in the top of the first and Chairman Powell is the only batter in the line-up, and while he may be selling leftovers in the second inning, right now he is all cheeseburger, cheeseburger, cheeseburger.

m

Recent PE4Fams Posts

Double Whammy of Deflation

Central banks consider deflation a “devil child” because of its pernicious psychology. Deflation encourages waiting for purchases until they get cheaper—which they do every day as demand is delayed.

Read this blog »

The Coming Debt Jubilee

The current safety net programs being offered by the Federal Reserve Bank are widespread. They include the Paycheck Protection Program (“PPP”) safety net of 8 weeks of payroll subsidy

Read this blog »

World 2.0

As a society we have been moving at 80mph most of my adult life. There is endless stimulation from people, meetings, media, business, religion, socialization, travel, sports, entertainment, literature,

Read this blog »

Rob McCreary

Rob McCreary has more than 40 years of transactional experience as an attorney, investment banker and private equity fund manager, and has spent his career in building entrepreneurial organizations with successful track records Founder and chairman of CapitalWorks, he is responsible for developing and maintaining senior relationships with investors and portfolio governance.

This blog represents the views of Rob McCreary and do not reflect those of CapitalWorks or its employees. This blog is not intended as investment advice. Any discussion of a specific security is for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as indicative of such security’s current or future value. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making an investment decision.

Private Equity for Families Blog | CapitalWorks Private Equity Cleveland Ohio

Get Rob's Private Equity and Investing Insights in Your Inbox

See Private Equity Like Rob!

Get on the PE4Fams List

Get a brief email notice whenever Rob shares his insights on investing and the world in the PE4Fams blog (about once every three weeks). 

Share via
Copy link
Powered by Social Snap