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Indians in Six Because…

Writing a blog about The World Series when your home team is a participant would seem as natural as blonde hair at a hair dressers convention. But I was resisting (jinx concerns) until I read a column by Jared Diamond in Monday’s edition of the Wall Street Journal “How the Cubs Overpowered October”.  Like most of the media, Mr. Diamond is certainly not an Indians fan. While he acknowledges that the October prize often goes to the team with momentum (the Indians are 7-1 in post season), he goes on to state; “Cubs President Theo Epstein- already enshrined in baseball lore for his curse-breaking stint with the Boston Red Sox- has built a roster so loaded with talent that it transcends the crapshoot nature of October.” Well, it is not just about October anymore and there is a real chance that the Champs will emerge from the gales of November off Lake Erie on either November 1st or November 2nd this year. More importantly, I can remember a team that was so loaded with talent that it should have transcended any crapshoot, the 1995 Cleveland Indians. Guess what? They lost.

’95 Tribe and ’16 Cubbies Are Loaded

Mr. Diamond is really enamored with the Cubbies winning 103 games in a 162 game season pronouncing the feat as “rarified air”. Maybe Mr. Diamond should recall that the 1995 Indians won 100 games in a strike shortened season of only 144 games. So the Cubs 63% winning percentage may be rare but the 1995 Indians with a 69% percentage must certainly be Olympian. If the ’95 Tribe had just won half of their remaining games they would have had 109 victories. If he wants blood rare he might bite into the 2001 Seattle Mariners who won 116 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Yankees 4-1.

That 1995 Tribe team certainly matches up well with the Cubbies at the plate. Remember who the #7 hitter was? That would be a right fielder by the name of Manny Ramirez who at age 23 had 31 home runs and 107 RBI’s in a season with 18 less games than the Cubbies just completed. He had 119 fewer at bats than Kris Bryant! By comparison Kris Brant who plays 3B and bats 4th hit 39 home runs with 107 RBI’s in 603 At bats. Manny had 484 Abs. On top of Manny being a better hitter than Bryant the Club also had Albert Belle who at age 28 in 546 plate appearances had 52 home runs, 50 doubles and 126 RBI’s. I guess you have to compare him to Cub’s Anthony Rizzo age 26 who has 583 at bats with 32 dingers and 102 RBI’s. You are left with the rest of the mighty Cubbies getting 95 RBI’s from Addison Russell and 76 from Ben Zobrist. In my book “Rarefied” should mean Baerga with 90, Eddie Murray with 82, Thome with 73, Vizquel with 56, Lofton with 53 and Sandy Alomar with 35. In stark relief, the new WSJ boys of November did not have another hitter with more than 50 RBI’s. By the way the Cubbies strike out a ton and the starters only had 47 stolen bases. Kenny Lofton alone had 54 and the Cleveland starters in 1995 had 117 swipes.

There might be a slight advantage to the Cubs in the pitching department. Lester was 19-5, Arieta was 18-8 and Kyle Hendricks was 16-8. Dennis Martinez for the Tribe was 12-5, Charlie Nagy was 16-6 and Orel Hershiser was 16-6 but all with four fewer starts. The Cubs have a flamer in Aroldis Chapman who routinely throws over 100 MPH and the Tribe had (break my heart) Jose Mesa who lost his way in ‘95 but lost the World Series in 1997 to the Marlins. His name is not spoken in our home.

To keep the comparison going, the 1995 Indians never lost more than 3 games in a row. The 2016 Cubs had a swoon and lost 15-20 games midway through the season. The Cubs skipper is Joe Maddon who has a lifetime 103-58 record while the Tribe in 1995 was skippered by Mike Hargrove who was 100-44. The ‘95 Tribe and the ‘16 Cubs seem to me pretty equal.

Lake Erie Breezes Blow In Championship

So I have an idea for why the Tribe will win in 6. It will be the weather. Game time is 8pm. Two of the nights will likely have rain. The game time temp for game 1 and game 2 is said to be 45 and 46 respectively followed by 56, 49, 49, 50 and 53. A team built for home runs with lots of strike outs will be feeling it in batting practice. Getting a grip on the baseball will be like trying to hold onto a greased watermelon. Trevor Bauer’s pinkie will be frozen and no blood will flow. A team of mutts that gets on base and advances the runners will have an edge. Tribe stole 2x the bases and neither Lester nor Arieta can hold runners. In fact, Lester has the yips about throwing to first base. Good defense will trump hitting (Indians ranked 11th and Cubs 22nd) and managerial experience will tip it in favor of the Tribe.

I consulted a definitive source on the matter of cold weather outcomes, The Hardball Times. In an article by Chris Constancio written October 2006, Mr. Constancio dropped a few pearls of wisdom.

  1. Pitchers strike out a higher proportion of batters in cold weather and stay warmer on the mound
  2. Pitchers also walk more batters in cold weather
  3. Home runs are relatively rare in cold weather
  4. Batted balls in play are less likely to be hits in cold weather
  5. Patient hitting teams have an edge
  6. Teams that are built on fast balls have an edge over teams with breaking balls

Not all of these factors favor the Tribe. Kluber, Tomlin, Merrit, Shaw and Miller rely on nasty breaking balls for their “out” pitches. In the post season the Tribe has also grabbed leads off the long ball. However, I do like the patient hitting edge and the legion of guys the Tribe can throw at you from the bullpen. Am I am sounding like a Yankees fan or a BoSox fan to you? I am still humble but practicing to become en-“titled” just like them.

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Rob McCreary

Rob McCreary has more than 40 years of transactional experience as an attorney, investment banker and private equity fund manager, and has spent his career in building entrepreneurial organizations with successful track records. Founder and chairman of CW Industrial Partners (originally CapitalWorks, LLC), he is responsible for developing and maintaining senior relationships with investors and portfolio governance.

This blog represents the views of Rob McCreary and do not reflect those of CW Industrial Partners or its employees. This blog is not intended as investment advice. Any discussion of a specific security is for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as indicative of such security’s current or future value. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making an investment decision.